Exit poll: Initial shock borne out by early results
Still more results seem to confirm the exit poll. Swindon North was a 4% swing to the Tories from Labour. Putney was a minuscule swing to Labour. Sadiq Khan got a 0.1% swing in Tooting and London was supposed to be a surge area for Labour. The Battersea seat, once Labour and where some optimists thought the party might just get back in, had a swing of 1.7% from Labour to the Conservatives.
Reports from Scotland suggest a Labour and Lib Dem massacre. And there are reports that Labour might even be losing East Midlands seats to the Tories.
Green Party support is around 7% in some seats where there are significant student populations and that is hurting Labour. Remember how it was David Cameron’s wheeze to bring the Greens into the tv leaders’ debate in order to hurt Labour. It seems to have worked.
Scotland seems to be on a separate political journey from England. UKIP look like taking 3rd place in share of the vote from the Lib Dems in England. With the Tories boosted close to majority status, Scots may feel more alienated than ever. When I asked. David Cameron on the campaign trail if he would increase the offer of powers to Scotland and move to a fully federal system he said he would not. But I wonder.
When he speaks later in the morning, David Cameron may want to replicate the fast footwork he pulled off in 2010 making conciliatory gestures to strengthen his claim on No. 10 if, as is quite possible, he has to run a minority government with a much smaller share of the vote behind it than the Coalition had. But with the trend if anything suggesting the exit poll might understate Tory strength a Tory majority is not out of the question.