First predictions of Tory absolute majority

FactCheck’s Patrick Worrall explains

Pundits are starting to predict a working majority for the Conservatives.

BBC analysts say the Tories could end up with 325 seats. They need 323 MPs to win votes in the Commons.

The website ElectionForecast.co.uk has the Conservatives teetering on the brink at a predicted 322 seats, but that number is creeping up minute by minute as more results come in.

Obviously this could all change as more results come in.

Most forecast websites have underestimated the surge in support for the Tories, and failed to predict the scale of the disaster for the Lib Dems.

An honourable mention goes to Elections Etc, a site that has been giving better odds on a Conservative majority than most of its rivals.

The model works on the principle that opinion polls tend to underestimate support for the Conservatives – essentially it’s a variation the old story of the “shy Tory” vote, where people vote Conservative but don’t like to admit it to pollsters.

One thing most of the prediction websites have got right is that Ukip’s popular support is failing to translate into seat wins. This could come as a shock for supporters, although FactCheck has been predicting a disappointing night for Nigel Farage for some time.