As we career towards May 7 can anyone really be a winner?
As we career headlong towards an argument about the legitimacy of minority governments this time next week I feel I ought to point out a couple of mad things about the two likely outcomes.
Either Labour is almost wiped out in Scotland, loses England, doesn’t stand in Northern Ireland but wins Wales and Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister, or the Conservatives remain almost wiped out in Scotland and Wales, barely exists in Northern Ireland but wins England (but loses London) and David Cameron becomes PM.
So there is going to be a serious legitimacy question mark around either “winner” next week. The other thing that is now crystal clear is that David Cameron’s biggest strategic mistake in the last five years was failing to get Nick Clegg to agree to boundary changes which would have taken away Labour’s current electoral advantage.
Conservatives claim the Lib Dems reneged on the deal, Lib Dems say it was the Conservatives who reneged on House of Lords reform. It didn’t help that David Cameron couldn’t stop Tory attacks on Nick Clegg in the media around that time too. Whatever the truth, had Cameron he realised that should have been his overriding priority he wouldn’t be in the position he is now.