
It is, intriguingly, an analysis that has entered some top Whitehall brains as well, as they try to game what government might land on their desks.
The Mayor of London urged Ukip supporters to vote for the Conservatives in The Sun on Friday, saying they “need to do the right thing for the country”.
Mr Johnson claimed a Labour government would be a “supine, useless federalist one” and that Ukip supporters should vote for the Conservatives to stave it off.
He also said his party would give people a say on Europe and immigration.
On last night’s Question Time Ed Miliband reiterated that his party would not do a deal with the SNP to secure government.
“If the price of a Labour government is a coalition or a deal with the SNP, it is not going to happen,” the Labour leader said.
Ed Miliband heads to Scotland on Friday evening to try and salvage the party’s election campaign, amid fears that the party is facing a “wipeout” at the hands of the SNP.
The Labour leader will warn that nationalism “never built a school, never lifted people out of poverty”.
Mr Miliband will also evoke the names of Scottish Labour Party founder Keir Hardie and the architects of devolution, John Smith and Donald Dewar.
Miliband rally speech tonight in Glasgow will call on Scots to unite behind Labour to kick the Tories out of No 10
— alex thomson (@alextomo) May 1, 2015
Speaking before heading to Scotland, Mr Miliband said: “Remember our great leaders, from Keir Hardie to Jennie Lee, John Smith to Donald Dewar. What would they want today?
“We could be on the verge of electing a Labour government. They would want to be part of it.”
Nicola Sturgeon will call on Scottish voters to “make their voices heard at Westminster” saying the country has an “unrivalled opportunity”.
Perhaps ironically, the SNP leader invoked the spirit of unity, saying: “By uniting as a country – north, south, east and west – to elect a big group of SNP MPs, Scotland gains the decisive position at Westminster needed to ensure that the interests of people across Scotland are not ignored in the way they too often have been in the past.”
On last night’s Question Time debates Mr Miliband ruled out a deal with the SNP and Ms Sturgeon, facing questions from an audience at BBC Scotland, said Scotland would never forgive him if he allowed the Conservatives to stay in government.
So Nick Clegg will say on Friday as he tells the Tories and Labour they will need to spend an extra £8bn a year on the National Health Service by 2020.
The Liberal Democrat leader will set out this “red line” at a speech to party supporters in Manchester.
Labour’s NHS funding plan falls £4bn short of this target – originally set by NHS England boss Simon Stevens.
The Conservatives have promised £8bn a year, but the Liberal Democrats say David Cameron’s party has failed to say how this will be funded.
Mr Clegg will say: “If you love the NHS so much, put your money where your heart is. That’s what the Liberal Democrats have done.
“We have set out exactly how we will raise every penny of the money the NHS needs to survive. We won’t allow the NHS to flat line. So this is a red line for us. A pre-condition for government.
“We won’t join a government that refuses to commit to giving the NHS the money it needs or set out how it will pay for it.”
The Liberal Democrats say they would also insist on introducing maximum waiting times for mental health services.
Nigel Farage has been out and about today expressing his anger that Ukip were not represented in last night’s leader’s Question Time.
After pulling out of a BBC Radio 1 appearance later today Mr Farage told Sky News: “Ukip are the fourth major party in British politics and that is something that has been respected by Sky, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 but not by the BBC.
“If I was in a position of power, I would take away a lot of their funding, a lot of their influence.”
The Ukip leader did not invited to the Question Time event but did take part in an individual show broadcast separately in England and Wales.
Despite the protestations Mr Farage has also been on the BBC this morning for an interview on the Today programme. In it he said there were no circumstances that he would help prop up Labour.
He said: “I have a feeling after last night’s debates, Mr Miliband now cannot be prime minister. It would be the greatest lie of modern British politics for him now to try and form a coalition with the SNP.” Ukip, he says, would be prepared to enter into a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories.
PA are reporting that Cameron made a rather embarrassing slip while speaking in at the Asda office in Leeds.
He’s talking about the idea of a “Northern powerhouse” again, and doing a good job of blocking the escalators as he does it. In London they’d have his head for that.
Boris Johnson is out campaigning in Hampstead this morning.
Last night Ed Miliband said that there will be no Labour government if it involves a coalition or a deal with SNP.
The Labour leader told BBC Question Time he “couldn’t be clearer” there would be no deals between the parties.
Although it sounded like tough talk, his position on the issue hasn’t really changed in weeks, and this morning he is keen to clarify his statements: Without a majority he could still put his party’s policies into a Queen’s Speech and work with the SNP on a vote by vote basis to support it.
Speaking to Sky on a train to Cardiff this morning he said: “It will always be a matter for the House of Commons how they vote on the Queen’s Speech, for example.
“But what I want to indicate very clearly to the British people, is that the Conservatives are perpetuating a falsehood which is somehow there’s going to be some coalition or deal between ourselves and the SNP. I’m fighting the SNP.
“That’s not going to happen.”
Labour are enjoying David Cameron’s “Freudian slip”. The Conservative leader said earlier that this is a “career defining election” before quickly correcting himself. He meant “country defining”.
He meant to say ‘country defining’. Whoops.
Nicola Sturgeon tells Alex Thomson that Labour are rolling back from what Miliband said last night about Tories rather than SNP deal.
They are flying over the stunning landscapes of Scotland.
On the streets of Musselburgh it is the now usual large crowd. They push babies in prams to the fore to be raised for the cameras
A woman asks me how best to get her tray of lemon drizzle cakes delivered to Scotland’s First Minister.
Conservative Party supporters wear Nicola Sturgeon masks in a stunt to warn of the risk of a possible coalition between the Labour and the SNP.
As we career headlong towards an argument about the legitimacy of minority governments this time next week I feel I ought to point out a couple of mad things about the two likely outcomes.
Either Labour is almost wiped out in Scotland, loses England, doesn’t stand in Northern Ireland but wins Wales and Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister, or the Conservatives remain almost wiped out in Scotland and Wales, barely exists in Northern Ireland but wins England (but loses London) and David Cameron becomes PM.
So there is going to be a serious legitimacy question mark around either “winner” next week. The other thing that is now crystal clear is that David Cameron’s biggest strategic mistake in the last five years was failing to get Nick Clegg to agree to boundary changes which would have taken away Labour’s current electoral advantage.
Conservatives claim the Lib Dems reneged on the deal, Lib Dems say it was the Conservatives who reneged on House of Lords reform. It didn’t help that David Cameron couldn’t stop Tory attacks on Nick Clegg in the media around that time too. Whatever the truth, had Cameron he realised that should have been his overriding priority he wouldn’t be in the position he is now.
How much does Microsoft think the last five years have aged the party leaders?
To the delight of the Internet, the computing giant has created a new tool that tells your age (and gender) based on your facial structure. Microsoft are the first to acknowledge that it’s not necessarily 100% accurate yet.
Channel 4 News decided to test it out and see what impact it thinks the past five years have had on those at the top of British politics. You can try it here.
According to the website the time has been hardest on David Cameron. Carrying the worries of the nation on you shoulders ages you 16 years apparently. He can take comfort that he is in fact 48 and so has just caught up with his real age.
The leader of the opposition has aged nine years in the last five according to the programme. Five years ago he looked a youthful 32, like David Cameron, but he’s more like 41 now. He shouldn’t be too depressed though – that’s four years younger than his real age of 45.
Coalition has been kind to Nick Clegg putting just two years on his age. However the 48 year old already looked much older than his real age in 2010, so he was starting from a rockier place than the other leaders.
Nigel Farage is a secret Benjamin Button according to the computer. He’s actually gone back in time since 2005. However he is actually only 51, and might want to think about cutting back on those pints if he wants to preserve his looks.
After using the Americanism “Hell Yes, I’m tough enough” in a Paxman interview caused a huge stir in the media, the Labour leader has gone back to it – with a twist.
Maybe his American style has something to do with this guy visiting?
Vandals have attacked Tory parliamentary candidate Charlotte Leslie’s family home, scratching cars and spray painting ‘tory scum’ on the, the Bristol Evening Post is reporting.
Ms Leslie’s dad, Ian, woke up this morning to find all four tyres of the campaign car – a red Volvo estate – let down.
Ian’s white BMW, which he bought as a retirement present, was spray painted all over with the words “Tory Scum”.
Michael Crick is with Lord Prescott. At a boxing club. Where else?
Ed Miliband‘s team has always been clear. The SNP, it argues, has nowhere else to go in a hung parliament, when it comes to votes that could bring in or vote out a Labour minority government. The SNP, Labour aides to the leader argue, lost its negotiating hand when it ruled out propping up the Tories. It would have to vote to keep Labour in (at least for a while).
It is, intriguingly, an analysis that has entered some top Whitehall brains as well, as they try to game what government might land on their desks.
It was the Labour press officer’s idea. I resisted at first. Vehemently. “I can’t do that,” I said.
But my producer Tim Bouverie insisted, and so did everyone else. “Just a bit of sparring in the ring,” they said. With John Prescott.
“But I’ve never boxed in my life,” I said. “He has. He’s virtually a professional.”
So, amid intense social pressure, I succumbed. “There are hundreds of MPs willing you on,” said the Labour candidate standing at Prescott’s side.
It was shadow-boxing at first. But, on the basis that you get your retaliation in first, I gently grazed his lordship’s tummy.
“Oh, it’s like then is it?” he responded.
That was it. Before long, amid laughing and cheering, the punches were raining in. I was almost on the ropes. Then thankfully, someone intevened and called it off.
Lord Prescott had won on points and proclaimed victory.
Next time I’ll stand my ground.
He’ takes a while but gets it in the end. So much so that by the end he’s told to stop showing off.
More importantly though, how can I get an invite to this dancing class. It’s way better than Zumba.
And we already knew he liked a boogie
Samantha Cameron watches her husband speak at Asda in Leeds
David Cameron has denied that he had slipped by referring to the election as career-defining as well as crucial for the country, PA is reporting.
“I meant both,” he told ITV News. “I was looking out at that big audience at Asda and for them it is career-defining …
“I meant both country-defining and career-defining.”
He added: “It is not about me, it is about people’s jobs in this country. That is what I was thinking about.”
Jo Swinson, who is fighting for a Scottish seat for the Lib Dems, just posted this Vine.
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Labour veteran Lord Prescott throws more punches on the campaign trail – this time at Channel 4 News’s Political Correspondent Michael Crick.
Protesters greet arrival of Ed Miliband pic.twitter.com/aYkQI7DUK6
— alex thomson (@alextomo) May 1, 2015
In the era of social media it was never going to stay secret.
Around 5pm the first protesters began turning up at the Glasgow venue where Ed Miliband is due to speak this evening.
About 30 protesters with ghetto blasters and flags outside the hall now.