It’s all about the money…

The Conservatives and Labour will be bludgeoning each other with “facts” about money today.

Chancellor George Osborne has been in the Telegraph saying that “independent Treasury analysis” will cost families more than £350.

An @Ed_Miliband govt propped up by SNP would hit hardworking people in the pocket. #VoteConservative https://t.co/RTobD9NRVc

— CCHQ Press Office (@CCHQPress) April 23, 2015

Ed Miliband will respond, at an event in Leeds, that the scale of cuts planned by the Conservatives is unprecedented in any three-year period since demobilisation at the end of the Second World War.

“The Tories are committed to the most extreme spending plans of any political party in generations,” he will say.

Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are launching their “Disability Manifesto” and Nigel Farage will be meeting veterans in Kent.

More viral #milifandom…

It started as teenage girls battling what they see as unfair sneering about Ed Miliband’s image – now #milifandom seems to be taking off.

Here it develops a distinctly grime/rap flavour.

Ukip promise bank holidays for St George’s Day and St David’s day

Ukip are holding a Cultural policy briefing this morning with their culture spokesman Peter Whittle and economy spokesman Patrick O’Flynn and they are handing out red and white St. George’s Day hats.

They want bank holidays partly to deal with the “cultural cringe” about proudly flying the national flag.

Still waiting for our wishes from Nick Clegg and Natalie Bennett though.

George Osborne claims a Miliband/SNP deal would leave families £350 worse off

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

The chancellor is determined to bring the election campaign back to the big issue of the economy where he thinks the Conservatives have the edge over Labour.

He has used a big front page interview in the Telegraph to point to “independent Treasury analysis” he says shows that SNP policies would add £6 billion to Britain’s debt interest bill – the equivalent of £358 per household per year.

He’s been on Radio 4 this morning to hammer home the point (plus sending out a five page briefing notes to journalists with quotes from businesses ostensibly backing the Conservatives).

What business commentators point out is that many business leaders are also extremely concerned about the rhetoric of some Conservatives about Britain’s place in the EU and the prospect of a referendum. Others say that voters won’t be overly impressed that Mr Osborne is quoting the very people who caused the financial crash in the first place.

He first points to one of Canada’s largest banks CIBC which he claims think of Labour and the SNP as a “dangerous cocktail”.

They have been joined by Morgan Stanley, the US investment bank, BlackRock, which is the largest pension fund in the world, Deutsche Bank, the largest German banks. These are pretty unsentimental people.

Labour have hit back with an alternative briefing from Citigroup which says they are “relaxed about UK political uncertainty” and that there “is less to fear from a minority government than in the past”.

Humphrys finishes the interview by asking Mr Osborne for his marks out of ten for the election campaign so far.

Unsurprisingly he dodges it – he says we’ll have to wait for May 8 for that, but he’s confident it’s going well.

Michael Crick: From Old Trafford to the Palace of Westminster

• Michael Crick Political Correspondent

I bumped in Seb Coe – Lord Coe – after the Manchester United game on Saturday evening. He’s a former Conservative MP, of course, and used to be a close adviser to William Hague.

So would he be out campaigning for the Tories in the election? No, he didn’t think it would be right whilst he was campaigning to become President of the IAAF, the International Association of Athletics Federations.

Talking of United, I was amazed to learn that a former Manchester United player might easily have become an MP next month. Michael Stewart was a midfielder who played eight games for United in the Ferguson years and also won four caps for Scotland.

After United he played for Hearts and Hibs in Edinburgh. He’s a keen SNP supporter and often been employed in their campaigns in the past. And Stewart made it to the final three for the shortlist for Edinburgh West. The way things are going in Scotland, if Stewart had been selected, he’d probably have been elected to Parliament.

Institute for Fiscal studies are briefing on party manifestos

Here is a live stream, if that’s your kind of thing.

And here is a the PDF in full, for your perusal.

The IFS has issued its funding after studying the manifestos of the four parties.

The think-tank says that voters are largely in the dark about the cuts that they would be facing under whatever Government is formed after May 7 because the parties refuse to give “anything like full details” about the specific ways they will reduce the deficit.

IFS party by party tax and spend breakdown

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

I must apologies before I give you these basic tax and spending briefings from the IFS – the feed I am watching is temperamental and cut out half way through the Conservatives section on specific tax cuts, which I will update later. 

Conservatives

The Conservatives have outlined a package of tax changes that they argue would be broadly revenue neutral.

Under Conservative plans we would see an increase in the tax burden driven by the policies set in place by the coalition and the underlying fiscal drag, the IFS say. For example an already promised increase in national insurance contributions will push up taxes. This is balanced by a restriction on tax relief on pension contributions for the richest pensioners and anti-avoidance measures.

The Conservatives would continue cutting spending to 18/19, the IFS say. It would be the lowest to 1999/2000 under the Tories if this happens.

Labour

Labour have laid out tax rises of 6 billion  – things like mansion tax and changes to pensions tax relief. They want to raise 7.5 billion from largely unspecified tax avoidance measures. The IFS estimate that overall tax burden is slightly higher than the Conservatives, a net tax rise of 0.7% of GDP by 2019-20.

Labour would cut spending but cut it less quickly than the Conservatives they say and would leave public spending at the lowest since 2002/2003.

Lib Dems

The Lib Dems say that the promises in their manifesto add up to a net tax rise of about 3 billion – they want to raise even more from tax avoidance, and they want £10 billion from this  by end of the parliament. So overall its a tax rise about the same as Labour, , a net tax rise of 0.6% of GDP by 2019-20.

Lib Dems somewhere in between Labour and Conservatives when it comes to public spending. We would see public spending falling to 2001/2002 levels, the IFS say.

SNP

The party have a revenue neutral approach, according to the IFS. The cuts are very similar to Labour but they are all to fund tax cuts. They say it is commendable that unlike other parties while the SNP want more money from tax-avoidance clamp downs they have not predicated their plans on this. The overall tax burden, they say will also be slightly higher than the Conservatives but this is mainly because they are not banking on the tax avoidance revenue in their budget.

On public spending the IFS say that the SNP want to increase public spending by 0.5% in real terms – which the IFS say is not actually a “very big increase”. in fact they say that their path of public spending looks the same as Labour to the end of 18/19.

Interesting SNP plans, according to the IFS, would leave public spending at a lower level than Labour and back at 2001/2 levels.

He says he’ll leave it to voters to decide whether the rhetoric of the party is the most important or the numbers the IFS crunched.

SNP would spend less than Labour, IFS say

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

Earlier I said that the IFS said voters had to decide between the “rhetoric” of the parties – both SNP’s own claim about the planned end to austerity and the scaremongering from their opponents – and the numbers the IFS have crunched from their manifestos.

This “number crunched” table from the full IFS report is interesting, it shows the IFS think that by 2019-20 Labour will be spending 38.3 per cent of the national income. The SNP will be spending 37.7 – less than the Liberal Democrat prediction.

Sleeper train is the only way to travel

Both David Cameron and our own Alex Thomson are extolling the virtues of Britain’s sleeper trains this morning.

Mr Cameron arrived in Penzance earlier today.

Meanwhile Alex has been enjoying his orange juice against the backdrop of some of the country’s most stunning countryside on his way to speak voters in Inverness.

The name’s Sturgeon?

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

Oh dear, even James Bond has been dragged into the election campaign.

Ed Miliband: IFS confirmed Tories ‘extreme spending plans’

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

While David Cameron is campaigning in Cornwall and Nick Clegg is making his way across the stunning vistas Crickhowell, Powys Ed Miliband is in Nuneaton.

He is there to unveil four new posters promising 20,000 new nurses. 8,000 more GPs, GP appointments within 48 hours and cancer tests within a week. Sadly the sun is less shiny in Warwickshire this morning.

The Labour leader says that IFS briefing this morning has confirmed Conservatives are committed to “extreme spending plans”. PA report that Labour will clear the deficit as soon as possible but will not go further.

Mr Miliband, who has been vocal about his party;s commitment to reestablishing Mare Nostrum search and rescue in the Mediterranean says that the has shown the right judgement on international affairs over the last years. He is also likely to be referring to his party’s decision to vote against the Government on air strike in Syria in 2013, something he has referred to as an example of his prime ministerial abilities.

IoD say none of the parties have explained how they plan to eliminate deficit

The Institute of Directors is calling on political parties to up their game and explain exactly how they are going to eliminate the deficit.

They say that all of the parties are failing to give “even the broadest details” on their plans.

James Sproule, chief economist at IoD said: “All the major political parties have talked about the importance of fiscal responsibility.

However, they are reluctant to give even the broadest of details about how they are proposing to eliminate the deficit. A mature debate on the sustainable level of public finances should be part at the heart of the election campaign.

He adds: “Plans to balance the budget through higher taxes are unlikely to be successful and would threaten UK growth. It is also very disappointing to see the parties entering a bidding war on new spending, with little detail on how this would be paid for.”

Lutfur Rahman found guilty of illegal practices in Tower Hamlets election

• Michael Crick Political Correspondent

Michael Crick is there in a court so packed he was forced to sit on the floor:

I’m taking a brief break from the general election today to go along to the high court where we have just heard the judgement in election court over the Tower Hamlets case.

Four petitioners have argued that Latfur Rahman and his supporters secured his re-election as Mayor of Tower Hamlets unfairly and illegally.

They hoped the judge Richard Mawrey would overturn the result, order a new contest and disqualify Rahman from running.

Mawrey is a robust judge.  He presided over the famous Birmingham postal votes fraud case a decade ago in which he compared the city to a banana republic.

Follow Michael’s ongoing commentary here

Gary Gibbon IFS verdict: The choice is between austerity and austerity-lite, but it could be the biggest in a generation

A future voter contemplates David Cameron earlier today

The IFS has crunched the numbers in the party manifestos on spending and is not awarding very high marks for candour. The SNP doesn’t get very high marks for numeracy off them either.

The toughest deliverers of austerity, the Tories by a long shot, get lowest marks for coming clean. They’ve had £12b of welfare cuts planned for next year for a long time and are shading in barely 10% of the detail on how they’d achieve that. Their projected cuts to unprotected departments are massive, but again, just how the party finds those cuts in justice, policing, social care, councils etc. is not discussed.

On this, St George’s Day, as David Cameron slips on the white suit and bells of his special election Morris dancing outfit, the crossover between SNP and Labour plans will be of interest. The IFS says the two parties’ “numbers (on spending) are broadly consistent – the rhetoric is not.”

The SNP’s promised end to austerity isn’t borne out by their sums in the manifesto – according to the IFS the SNP make £6b of cuts in unprotected departments by the end of the next parliament. That’s potentially more than £5b more than Labour ( though Labour’s plans end up looking similar if you assume they pay up Simon Stevens’ £8b recommended cash injection for the NHS).

If you thought austerity was over it isn’t really under any of these plans. If overall spending only rises in line with inflation not growth you still have belt-tightening especially in the unprotected departments, but it is “austerity lite” compared with the Tory offer. The IFS says the gap between the two main parties’ offer on spending is the widest it has been since 1992 … the widest “in a generation,” you might say, but the Scottish debate has rather challenged that metric, so let’s stick with “1992.”

Is St George now trying to slay the Sturgeon dragon?

• Alex Thomson Chief Correspondent

Alex Thomson writes that many may chuckle on St George’s day at the possibility that the English may get a taste of their own democratic medicine…

I write from Inverness on St George’s day at a time when Westminster, London and England have rarely seemed so distant and foreign to so many – and that cuts both ways.

Not least because the main English parties are playing the nationalist card at every turn now in their St George-like attempt to slay the Sturgeon dragon.

Tricky ground for the English parties and the SNP, playing the nationalist card – especially for many north and south of Gretna Green.

Many Scots (and I am half English, half Scot) are enraged when they hear English politicians talking about a “constitutional crisis” should the SNP end up holding the balance of post-election power in Westminster.

You what? Seriously?

Here you will quickly be reminded that few English voices were ever raised when a Tory government was elected by other nations, to rule over Scots who never voted for them.

Again, and again, and again.

… Read in full here

Ed Balls and Nicola Sturgeon hit out at IFS analysis

Ed Balls and Nicola Sturgeon are unhappy with the IFS’ analysis of their budget plans.

Mr Balls, Labour’s shadow chancellor, said that the IFS numbers “wrongly assume” that Labour will get the “current budget only into balance.

He says that his party gave a clear manifesto pledge that his party would get the budget not into balance but “into surplus as soon as possible in the next Parliament”.

He said: “How big that surplus will be, and how quickly we can achieve that in the next Parliament, will depend on what happens to wages and the economy.”

Nicola Sturgeon is equally unhappy. “Let me give you three points in which it gets the SNP’s plans wrong. Firstly, it doesn’t credit for any increases in revenue from the tax rises we are proposing. Secondly, it gives no credit for the revenue we would increase from cracking down on tax avoidance. “The fundamental misassumption at the heart of the IFS report this morning is this one: it assumes that the SNP would cut borrowing by 2019/20 to 1.4% of GDP – that’s not our plan. Our plan is for borrowing in that year to be 1.6% of GDP.”

David Cameron: UK will send HMS Bulwark to deal with Med migrant crisis

Leader of the Scottish Conservatives feeds Buzzfeed reporter a Solero

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

This stems from a aged photo of Alex Salmond feeding a girl a Solero in a 1999 publicity shot.

He is literally standing by a river, feeding a girl in a white vest a Solero with his jacket slung over his shoulder. It is bizarre.

Since then there has been an extensive search for the girl in the photo and other Solero based jokes, and today Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives offered to recreate the shot.

Lib Dems are trolled over their ‘unofficial election anthem’

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

The Liberal Democrats have released an “unofficial election anthem” in which Nick Clegg stars in a mash-up of pop song Uptown Funk.

Some viewers turned it off after just a few seconds, claiming they were “paralysed with cringe”.

Other comments underneath the Youtube video, which has attracted over 300,000, include:

“the video ended i sat in silence confused and then laughed out loud”

“I laughed throughout because you know, Lib Dems”

“This is easily the worst thing I’ve ever seen, and I saw Vanilla Ice in concert.”

“You don’t understand internet.”

“OMG they made an internet video! They understand us young people, lets forget about university fees and vote for them!! ….idiots”

So that went well.

Boris Johnson’s verdict on the Labour campaign

Conservatives pay back further £20,000 in donations from convicted tax evader and wife

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

According to the latest electoral commission data the four political parties that have reported receiving donations over £7,500 were:

Conservative Party – £492,512 Labour Party – £1,109,946 Liberal Democrats – £50,000 United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip) – £8,000

Ukip also reported £63,000 worth of donations late. The Commission say they are in correspondence with the party to establish the reasons for this.

Among the list of Conservative donors are Stanley Tollman and his wife Beatrice, who each gave £10,000 in the second week of the campaign. Mrs Tollman also gave £20,000 the week before.

On Monday, The Independent newspaper revealed Mr Tollman had pleaded guilty to tax evasion in the US in 2008.

It also discovered Ms Tollman, who founded the luxury hotel chain Red Carnation Group, had been charged with conspiracy to evade tax, but the charges were dismissed.

The findings prompted the Conservatives to return all of the money received from Mrs Tollman, who the paper said had donated more than £50,000 to them since 2011.

A party spokesman confirmed today that all the money received – including the additional £20,000 given most recently – had now been returned to the couple.

A spokesman for Mr and Mrs Tollman told The Independent: “In so far as Mrs Tollman is concerned you will see she is of good character and was acquitted of all charges.”

Responding to Mr Tollman’s guilty plea, a spokesman for the family added:  “Stanley Tollman admitted to having failed to report on his US tax return two bank accounts situated outside the US.  It was that omission for which he was sentenced to one day’s unsupervised probation.

“The reality is that the financial settlement was the only means through which his family were going to be able to get on and lead their lives without being coerced by the Americans.”

Baker Balls

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

Lucky for Labour’s shadow chancellor a Ukip candidate proved a useful test case for the rules governing handing out edible treats on the campaign trail.

Kim Rose, standing in Southampton Itchen, was told to report to police over allegations he tried to influence voters with sausage rolls.

Although no further action was taken Mr Rose said he would  be “giving bakers a wide berth in future”.

The electoral commission pointed out: “Treating requires a corrupt intent – it does not apply to ordinary hospitality.”

So can you save me a cake Mr Balls?

Ed Balls really cannot do an impression of a duck

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

… but that sure as heck won’t stop him trying.

I’m really sorry that I missed this yesterday but you have it now and that’s the important thing.

Lord Mandelson: Business does fear Labour, but it’s misplaced

• Georgia Graham georgia.graham@itn.co.uk

Asked about businesses fearing the Labour party, Lord Mandelson, the party’s former business secretary, answers: “I think there’s quite a lot of fear about the Labour Party but I also think it’s misplaced.”

He adds: “Whilst business people might not like the individual tax changes or whatever, they’re not facing a Labour Party that’s going back to the old nationalisation.”

He also says Ed Miliband has exceeded “most people’s expectations. I suppose in a sense mine as well.” I’m sure there is a compliment in there somewhere…

He does also say he felt at the beginning of last week that Labour was getting the Zeitgeist of the campaign, so there’s that.

Union boss Len McCluskey: Labour’s policies are our policies

Len McCluskey has used his message to union members to say that Labour party policies are “our policies”.

The Conservatives have criticised the amount of funding Labour party gets from unions each year claiming that the party has received over a £100,000 a day from the unions for each day of the election campaign.

“The Labour party is our party. We built it, to serve us, the people. Never forget, the rich and powerful have their party, the Tories.

“And Ukip is no friend – they are frauds, charlatans who will roll back every advance won by working people.

“One May 7, we can vote for a government that will build homes, give our kids hope, save our NHS and attack the evil of zero hours, hire and fire working.

“These are our policies. These are the changes that you have been fighting for these five long years. They are now within our grasp.”

Labour would fire unqualified teachers by 2020 if they aren’t enrolled in training

Tristram Hunt has said that all unqualified teachers (Britain currently has 17,000 of them) would be fired if they have not begun training for official qualifications.

He said that those who were not in training or did not have a qualification by the end of the next parliament did not belong in classrooms.

Mr Hunt, Labour’s shadow education secretary, made the comments in a debate with education spokesmen and women of the other parties on the BBC daily politics show.

It also features Nicky Morgan for the Conservatives, David Laws for the Lib Dems, James Humphreys for the Greens and Ukip’s Jonathon Arnott.

They were all asked if it was ok for an education secretary to send their child to private school and the answer was a unanimous yes.

FactCheck: which party is running the biggest truth deficit?

Britain’s biggest parties are all failing to tell the electorate the whole truth about their spending plans, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS).

The think-tank has just published a major analysis/tongue-lashing of budget plans set out by the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

Most of the parties are using parts of the paper to attack their rivals – while claiming that the IFS has got it wrong about their own policies.

FactCheck fact check all those claims flying around

The very definition of too much information?

Nigel Farage raises a pint on St George’s Day

Nick Clegg: I’m 48, I’ve got bags of energy, I’d like to carry on

The deputy prime minister and Liberal Democrat leader has been asked if he is preparing for a life outside politics if he loses his seat. Recent polling shows that he is behind Labour in the seat.

He said: “I’m not complacent. I’m confident I’ll be re-elected. I’m very confident that this cottage industry of pessimism about Liberal Democrat prospects is way overdone.

“We are going to confound our critics once again. We’ve done it many, many times before. I’m only 48, I’ve got bags of energy, I’d like to carry on.”

After David Cameron famously said his favourite political joke was “Nick Clegg”, the Lib Dem leader was asked if he had a favourite joke about the PM, but responded: “Probably not any I can share. I’ll leave that for the memoirs.”

Today’s polls

Still a very mixed bag. Lab lead by three in Panelbase and the Tories up by four in the Survation.

The party leaders as rated by these rather perceptive kids

The video is by KidRated and they have asked a panel of children about immediate reactions to the party leaders.

These children are oddly accurate with their analysis. Asked who cares most about nature they go straight for Natalie Bennett “because she’s standing outside and nature is outside” (very fair point).

On Health its Nigel Farage becuase he looks smiley. Hmm.

Although I’m starting to think the questions are a bit skewed: “If you made a friend on holiady and you wanted them to come live here, who do you think would stop them.”

The girls chose Ed Miilband and Natalie Bennett because they look quite tough who look like they can “stop people doing some fun stuff”.

The boys thought that Ed Miliband would also be the one who would come and save them from out of space, while Nick Clegg and David Cameron can be best friends becuase “I don’t know what it looks like to you, but to me they look exactly the same.!”

Ed Miliband is showing off a bit in Leeds

Tower Hamlets election fraud mayor Lutfur Rahman removed

• Michael Crick Political Correspondent

Do you worry about the Scots having too much influence?

• Gary Gibbon Political Editor